Projections of more rain, declining king salmon runs and warming winters are driving a new tribal-led effort to protect the environment and traditional way of life in Wrangell.

The Wrangell Cooperative Association contracted with Two Bears Environmental Consulting, an Alaska-based firm, and together they are developing a comprehensive climate adaptation plan to safeguard the community’s culture, infrastructure and food security for future generations. 

Following an initial meeting last October, and the collection of online survey responses from April, the public was invited to a May 9 meeting at the Nolan Center, where Jaimlyn Sypniewski, Two Bears’ spatial analyst and modeling lead, shared current findings and projections and invited public comment.

Aside from WCA representatives, the meeting was sparsely attended.

Scheduled for completion in August, the climate adaptation plan aims to merge advanced Western science with generations of Indigenous knowledge.

According to Sypniewski, while tech firms bring computer models and NASA satellite data to the table, tribal citizens provide irreplaceable historical perspective. 

She said the first step in the scientific method begins with local observations. “Local science is the deep, long-standing knowledge and observations passed down through generations within the community.” 

The presentation of data collected for the plan highlights a rapidly changing environment. A recent community online survey conducted throughout April by the WCA Earth Branch revealed that 90% of respondents have actively noticed shifts in their surroundings, with changing weather patterns, altered snowpack and disappearing ice topping the list of observations.

Furthermore, 80% of residents reported noticeable drops in fish and wildlife populations, while 70% have seen changes in local vegetation, such as berry patches and seaweed. 

The shifts hit close to home for residents who rely on the land and sea.

Salmon fisheries and food security emerged as the highest priorities in the survey, with 80% of participants ranking them as top concerns. Forest health and wildlife populations followed closely behind, capturing the concern of 60%. 

Community mapping sessions have allowed residents to pinpoint specific hazards across the borough. Sypniewski said participants voiced deep worries over declining king salmon runs, landslide risks that could trigger dangerous wave actions, and the threat of invasive species like the European green crab.

Infrastructure vulnerabilities, including washed-out culverts, sinkholes and water quality concerns were also highlighted as major risks to public health and safety. 

Sypniewski said scientific models validate the tribal observations, projecting more changes for the island by the end of the century.

According to climate models used by Two Bears, historical daily temperatures in Wrangell typically averaged between 40 and 45 degrees Fahrenheit. However, those averages are projected to surpass 45 degrees around 2040, ultimately climbing to between 50 and 55 degrees Fahrenheit by the year 2100.

As temperatures rise, precipitation patterns are shifting. Rainfall on the island is expected to increase by about 9.1 inches annually by 2100. Conversely, average daily snowfall and average wind speeds are both projected to continue their long-term downward trends through the end of the century. 

Sypniewski emphasized that changing weather numbers only tell half the story. The ultimate focus of the plan, she said, is to understand how these shifting baselines will impact traditional hunting, food gathering, rain catchments and cultural practices.

Project planners are continuing to gather feedback through public meetings, interviews and community surveys to ensure the final roadmap reflects the true needs of the community. 

Residents looking to contribute their knowledge will soon be able to view digitized community maps, which Sypniewski said will be interactive and will allow for individuals to mark certain areas on the map to make note of any environmental changes they may have observed. 

“The map is currently being updated with the additional locations pointed out by the community,” she said. “Once updated, the map and all of the data will be given to Kim Wickman and Lexie Hayes (with the WCA Earth Branch) for them to post and share at their discretion.”