After a strong return of pink salmon to Southeast last year, state fisheries managers are forecasting a commercial harvest of just over 16 million fish this summer, one-third the level of last year’s catch of 48.5 million pinks.
“During recent decades, Alaska-wide pink salmon returns have tended to be larger” during odd-numbered years than even-numbered years, the Department of Fish and Game noted in its annual forecast released April 19.
Last summer’s pink harvest was on track with the 10-year average for odd-numbered years (2010-2019), the state reported.
The report also forecasts a drop in commercial sockeye catches in Southeast this year, at just under 800,000 fish, down from last year’s harvest of 1.1 million sockeye. The Southeast region includes Yakutat.
A couple of brighter spots, however, are the forecast for the coho harvest, almost 1.8 million fish, up from 1.56 million last year, and a projected commercial harvest of 8.4 million chum, up from 7.4 million last year.
Most of the chum catch — almost 89% — would be hatchery returns, according to the forecast. Hatcheries have focused for almost 30 years on growing the region’s chum harvest, while coho and sockeye are harder to raise in hatcheries. The department said hatchery returns would comprise about 7% of the Southeast sockeye harvest, and about 34% of the commercial coho catch.
Hatcheries do not focus on the less valuable pinks, with about 3% of this year’s Southeast pink harvest expected to come from hatchery stocks, according to the state’s estimates.
Bolstered by solid pink numbers last year, the overall Southeast salmon harvest was four times larger than in 2020 and the 16th largest in number of fish since 1962, the state said. The sockeye harvest last year was in the middle of numbers going back to 1962, while the coho harvest was in the bottom half of the range for the past 60 years.
The 2021 chum harvest was about 25% below the 10-year average.
Statewide, the department expects the total commercial salmon harvest to fall off from last year’s 230 million, coming in at 160 million, with most of the drop coming from lower pink returns in Southeast, Prince William Sound and the Alaska Peninsula.
The state’s biggest commercial fishery, the sockeye catch in Bristol Bay, is projected at a commercial take of almost 60 million fish this summer, up substantially from last year’s harvest of 42 million.
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