Modeling saw the storm but not the surges that devastated coastal Alaska

When the remnants of Typhoon Merbok were barreling toward western Alaska to unleash what turned out to be the region’s strongest storm in more than half a century, meteorologists knew what was coming. What they could not predict was the exact level and location of flooding – devastation that prompted a federal disaster declaration by President Joe Biden and a whirlwind Alaska tour by Federal Emergency Management Agency Administrator Deanne Criswell.

“The large-scale weather models nailed this storm, days in advance. The storm surge models were crap — not complete crap, but a lot of crap,” said...