State forecasts average pink salmon harvest in 2024

The Alaska Department of Fish and Game announced it expects Southeast Alaska commercial fishermen next year will harvest around 19 million pink salmon — close to an average number based on 63 years of commercial harvest data collected since Alaska became a state.

The department’s forecast, released in November, predicts a pink salmon catch of between 12 million and 32 million fish.

Pink salmon harvest varies greatly from odd-numbered years to even-numbered years, and the commercial catch in the 10 most recent even years has averaged 21 million pink salmon. In 2022, fishermen caught about 18.3 million pinks.

Pink salmon catches for even years 2020 and 2018 were around 8 million fish each, among some of the lowest pink harvests for Southeast Alaska in decades.

This year, fisheries managers were surprised by a banner pink salmon escapement and harvest given the poor pre-season forecast for 2023. However, a market collapse shook the seafood industry and sank fishermen's profits for pink and chum salmon.

Southeast fishermen this year caught nearly 48 million pinks, earning an average 23 cents per pound, according to Fish and Game data. The 2021 harvest also was close to 48 million pinks, but prices were more than one-third higher than in 2023.

The Alaska Department of Fish and Game and the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration since 2018 have produced an annual joint pink salmon harvest forecast under the Southeast Alaska Coastal Monitoring project. The forecast is primarily based on surface trawl surveys for juvenile pink salmon, which the agencies conduct along inside waters of northern Southeast Alaska on a research vessel.

The forecast for 2024 is based on 2023 juvenile trawl surveys, and accounts for the abundance of pink salmon that returned to their home streams during the parent year of 2022, as well as environmental factors such as sea surface temperature, water temperature during trawl surveys and zooplankton abundance, according to Fish and Game.

Juvenile pink salmon found in the trawl surveys this year were “below average in size (length) and energy density” compared to annual juvenile sample data dating back to 1997, according to Fish and Game. The department reported that for these juvenile pinks, “any further growth and survival will depend on favorable resources in the Gulf of Alaska.”