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Pink salmon forecast anticipates middling run


Submitted Diagram

From ADFG's 2017 pink salmon forecast report for Southeast Alaska, annual forecasts are compared to actual harvest figures from 1998 on. The department notes pink salmon returns can be particularly difficult to forecast because the species' two-year life history cycle only involves one ocean winter and precludes the use of younger returning age classes to predict cohort abundance.

Next year's pink salmon

harvest forecast for Southeast Alaska is anticipating a run

statistically on the stronger side, though the numbers may not be particularly optimistic for fishermen still reeling from a disappointing 2016 run.

The 2017 report predicts the coming run will fall within in the "strong" range, with a point estimate of 43 million fish and an 80-percent confidence interval.

To produce the

forecast, researchers adjusted past harvest trends using peak June-July juvenile pink

salmon abundance data from 2016. Using exponential smoothing, all harvests since 1960 were factored...

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